Developmental signaling networks are composed of dozens of components whose interactions are very difficult to quantify in an embryo. Geometric reasoning enumerates a discrete hierarchy of phenotypic models with a few composite variables whose parameters may be defined by in vivo data. Vulval development in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a classic model for the integration of two signaling pathways; induction by EGF and lateral signaling through Notch. Existing data for the relative probabilities of the three possible terminal cell types in diverse genetic backgrounds as well as timed ablation of the inductive signal favor one geometric model and suffice to fit most of its parameters. The model is fully dynamic and encompasses both signaling and commitment. It then predicts the correlated cell fate probabilities for a cross between any two backgrounds/conditions. The two signaling pathways are combined additively, without interactions, and epistasis only arises from the nonlinear dynamical flow in the landscape defined by the geometric model. In this way, the model quantitatively fits genetic experiments purporting to show mutual pathway repression. The model quantifies the contributions of extrinsic vs. intrinsic sources of noise in the penetrance of mutant phenotypes in signaling hypomorphs and explains available experiments with no additional parameters. Data for anchor cell ablation fix the parameters needed to define Notch autocrine signaling.